Hans and Anne Marie got to hear from and speak with David Fingold April 3rd to discuss his positioning of the Dynamic Global Dividend fund. David was very bullish on the US looking at the next 12 months and has said to us before that he believes anyone forecasting beyond 12 months is guessing. As some of you would have heard the yield curve (disputably) inverted for some short period of time this year. An inverted yield curve has preceded 7 of the last 8 recessions with the longer inversions having more severe consequences.
The distinction that David Fingold brought to our attention was that there was on average 39% growth between the times of inversion and the 3 most recent recessions. Additionally, prior to the last 8 recessions, the previous 5 had no yield inversion.
All of this to say that the inversion is one indicator of a possible recession on the horizon (likely 12+ months away.) We don’t want to ignore that, but we also don’t want to overreact. We help clients obtain a position that will look after their needs in the long term regardless of 1-2 year market conditions. Those who rely on their investments for an income should have 1-2 years of income secured in low risk vehicles, and those with debt and non-registered investments should speak to us about possibly paying down the debt. Other than that, we’re still optimistic for the near future and we remain fully invested.
The Federal Budget
- Home Buyers’ Plan: The home buyers plan has been extended to individuals who were recently divorced or separated. The amount you can borrow from your RRSP has also been increased from $25,000 to $35,000. The repayment period has remained the same at 15 years.
- First Time Buyer incentive: An incentive program where CMHC would buy a 5-10% equity stake in a first-time home owners’ property. As it’s written, we feel this not ideal for buyers and should only be used after all other options have been exhausted.
- Canada Training Credit: Every year, eligible workers aged 25-64 would accumulate a credit of $250 per year up to a lifetime limit of $5,000 allowing them to apply for up to 50% cost of training fees at colleges/universities to acquire occupation skills training.
We’d like to remind everyone of the importance and affordability of life insurance, especially for young families. Coverage for a male non-smoking 30-year-old in average health costs as little as $9/month per $100k of insurance. Life insurance is primarily a tool people use to provide for their family in the unfortunate event of a premature death.
A person’s family shouldn’t have to endure the costs of final expenses, counselling, time off work, debt servicing, child education, etc. when coverage is cheaply available. To whom it applies, we encourage you to have this conversation with your families. If you have any questions, or need a quote please call or e-mail us and we’ll help in any way we can.
We’d like to give a special thank you to all our clients who refer our services to their friends and family.
To hear that someone was referred to us is the greatest compliment we can receive. We take our role very seriously; our aim is to grow funds with which there is time to grow, protect funds which need protection, optimize risk and manage expectations so as to deliver satisfactory results regardless of market conditions.
Hans will be taking three weeks off in May (changed from March) to visit friends in Germany as a result of having won a raffle for a free roundtrip anywhere that WestJet flies.
This raffle is put on once or twice per year by the Big Brothers Big Sisters of Central Vancouver Island, click here for more information
People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game
I don’t know when to buy stocks, but I know whether to buy stocks
If fear is too strong, the genius is suppressed
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter contains general information only and is intended for informational and educational purposes provided to the clients of Anne Marie Dryden & Hans Bischoff. While information contained in this newsletter is believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of printing, Anne Marie Dryden & Hans Bischoff do not guarantee, represent or warrant that the information contained in this newsletter is accurate, complete, reliable, verified or error-free. This newsletter should not be taken or relied upon as providing legal, accounting or tax advice. You should obtain your own personal and independent professional advice, from your lawyer and/or accountant, to take into account your particular circumstances. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with ETF & mutual fund investments. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns. ETF’s & Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the prospectus before investing. The views expressed in this message are not necessarily the views of Investia Financial. Exchange traded funds, mutual funds and exempt market products are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc.